We are on the brink of ecosystem collapse and headed for a deeply uncertain and likely dangerous future, but it seems very few people, or countries, are even talking about it. We seem to be "comfortably numb".
DeFRA's national security assessment of global ecosystems was published in late January, by their Joint Intelligence Committee. Its aim is to support UK national security planning by identifying risks to the UK from global biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. The assessment draws on a broad range of sources, including scientific literature and expert judgement to apply the uncertainty frameworks used in intelligence assessments. It clearly shows how losing our natural world is a crisis we cannot ignore.
The biodiversity loss calculations serve to demonstrate the vulnerability of ecosystems at a regional scale, presenting a dire picture for our planet, not only for the organisms that are intricately embedded within ecosystems, but also for us, humankind. The report puts this in a nutshell:
Nature is a foundation of national security. Biodiversity loss is putting at risk the ecosystem services on which human societies depend, including water, food, clean air and critical resources. The impacts will range from crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks to conflict within and between states, political instability, and erosion of global economic prosperity. Increasingly scarce natural resources will become the focus of greater competition between state and non-state actors, exacerbating existing conflicts, starting new ones and threatening global security and prosperity.
Ecosystem degradation(1) is occurring across all regions and ecosystems. The average size of monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% between 1970-2020. Populations of animal and reptile species have declined by an average of 68% since 1970. Freshwater ecosystem species populations have shown the largest losses, falling 84% in the same period.
The Assessment identifies particular threats to the UK and scores them in terms of likelihood, severity and proximity:
Moderately likely
Without significant increases in UK food system and supply chain resilience, it is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food. The UK relies on imports of both food and fertiliser and cannot currently produce enough food to feed its population based on current diets.
Highly likely
Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity. The world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse. Without major intervention to reverse the current trend, this is highly likely to continue to 2050 and beyond.
Highly likely
Critical ecosystems that support major global food production areas and impact global climate, water and weather cycles are the most important for UK national security. Severe degradation or collapse of these will result in water insecurity, severely reduced crop yields, a global reduction in arable land, fisheries collapse, changes to global weather patterns, release of trapped carbon exacerbating climate change, novel zoonotic diseases and loss of pharmaceutical resources.
Food production is the most significant cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss. As the global population grows, reaching 9.7 billion by 2050, the impact of food production on natural systems will intensify and it will become even more challenging to produce sufficient food sustainably. Countries best placed to adapt are those that invest in ecosystem protection and restoration, and resilient and efficient food systems.
Explainer
(1) Ecosystem degradation: a long-term reduction in an ecosystem’s structure, functionality, or capacity to provide benefits to people.
(2) Ecosystem collapse: refers to a critical threshold beyond which an ecosystem is potentially irreversibly changed and can no longer maintain essential structure or function.
Hampshire County Council - Biodiversity Duty Report
Against this horrifying background at the global scale, Hampshire County Council (HCC), is talking about biodiversity and has counted its achievements over a two-year period, from January 2023 to December 2025.
The Environment Act 2021 set out a legally binding duty on all public bodies to conserve and enhance biodiversity, through objectives, policies and delivery.
HCCs first statutory Biodiversity Duty Report, setting out in some detail how the authority has conserved and enhanced biodiversity across Hampshire, has been published. This follows a comprehensive mapping project tied to HCC's Local Nature Recovery Strategy which was consulted on widely.
The Duty sets out 'a whole organisation approach and a commitment to working collaboratively with a wide range of partners, recognising the significance of Hampshire’s natural environment to the county’s identity, economy, health and wellbeing, and ability to respond to the challenges of climate change'.
Key achievements include major habitat creation and restoration, significant tree and hedgerow planting, integration of nature-based solutions in infrastructure, species recovery, strengthened monitoring, and strong partnerships for nature recovery, including:
123,000 trees planted
230 hectares of chalk grassland restored at Butser Hill
225 Road Verges of Ecological Importance (RVEIs) designated, managed with species-specific cutting regimes
42 new community orchards established across parishes, schools, community farms and youth groups, with 765 fruit and nut trees planted
Species recovery of the field-cricket in Hampshire at Shortheath Common and of Long-leaved Helleborine on sites restored through targeted management including coppicing, raking, re-grazing and protective fencing
However, this is not near enough nature restoration to protect us from ecosystems collapsing and much of the work was actually achieved in association with voluntary groups such as the Hampshire & Isle of Wight Wildlife Trust. Many, many more trees are required, especially in urban spaces, and many more hectares of chalk downland could be restored across the HCC area. In addition, our chalk streams and rivers require greater protection from pollution events which continue to threaten the integrity of aquatic ecosystems.
There is a mountain to climb.
How can you help?
News like this can be overwhelming, but it is essential to remember that you are not powerless. Every choice you make has an impact. To differing degrees, we can all choose to make impactful and meaningful changes in our lives to help support biodiversity and planetary health. This is empowering, not onerous.
Hypernormalisation is a good description of the status quo at present - where people recognise that systems are broken and breaking down, but due to lack of effective leadership and an inability to imagine how to disrupt the situation, we carry on as normal - in spite of a heavy mental and emotional load of dread, denial and dissociation. Hypernormalisation is experienced like some sort of curse, encompassing both the dysfunctional and the mundane. Action can break this spell.
Political engagement, protest, community action, changes to your daily habits and routines - down to the products you purchase and use - all levels of action are important and indeed essential. All actions, no matter the scale, have impact. This is something we might have forgotten but could do with remembering.
If you would like to take action with the Petersfield community, please get in touch with us here at PeCAN. You are warmly invited to make contact with us and other local groups at our weekly Eco Cafe on Tuesday mornings 11am-12pm in the Courtyard Room at Winton House, or come along to our monthly PeCAN at the Pub evenings on the last Wednesday of each month at the Folly from 7pm. Keep an eye on the upcoming events and volunteering opportunities sections on our website.
Together we are stronger